Population change for Caucasians and African Americans in Arkansas counties
1 qq Census Analysis Shows 12.0% Net Outmigration of Arkansas Blacks q Dr. Lawrence L. Santi Ms. Mary A. McGehee Division of Demographic Research University of Arkansas at Little Rock Little Rock, AR 72204 501-569-8571 q February 9, 1991 q The present note is the fifth in a series of reports produced by UALR's Division of Demographic Research over the past couple of weeks on population change in the State and counties of Arkansas, q as reflected in recently released data from the 1990 Census of the Population. q q In the first note, we analyzed patterns of overall change from 1980 to 1990 in the population of Arkansas counties, and in a second installment, we decomposed these patterns of overall population change into portions attributable to natural increase (the excess of births over deaths), on the one hand, and to net Our third and fourth notes were q migration, on the other. concerned with population change among the two major racial groups in the State, showing first, how overall population growth rates differed between whites and blacks, and second, how the racial composition of Arkansas counties changed over the 1980s. qq In the present note, we merge these two lines of inquiry with race-specific decompositions of overall population growth in Arkansas counties into natural increase and net migration components (i.e., we perform such decompositions separately for the white and the black populations of the State). qq The logic of these decompositions is quite simple. We begin with the 1980 Census count of persons of a given race living in a particular county. We calculate a "natural increase" component by subtracting the number of deaths occurring to persons of that race over the decade from the number of births occurring to women of that race. Adding the natural increase component to the initial 1980 population gives us an "expected" 1990 population, which is then compared to the "actual" 1990 Census count to arrive at an estimated "net migration" component. 1 We recall that the recently released 1990 Census count of persons of all races showed an overall population growth for the State as a whole of 2.8%, which was decomposed into a 5.1% growth due to natural increase and a 2.3% loss due to net outmigration. I When we examine these numbers separately for whites and blacks, we see significant differences between the two racial groupings. The white population of the State of Arkansas experienced 2.9% overall growth during the 1980s, attributable to a 3.7% natural increase and net outmigration of 0.8 '6 By way of contrast, the black population experienced no overall growth during the 1980s (a measured increase of 144 persons, which constitutes 0.0% of the State's 1980 black population), due to the countervailing effects of 12.0% natural increase and 12.0% net outmigration. In the balance of this report, we examine population growth and its components at the county level, separately for whites and for blacks. Population Change and Its Components Among Whites The data on which this discussion is based are presented in 4 Each of the Tables lA, IB, IC, and ID, and Maps lA, IB, and IC. four tables contains the same basic information, and differ only in the order in which counties are listed. In Table lA, counties 4 4 are listed in alphabetical order, while in Tables IB, IC, and ID, counties are sorted in order of percentage change in population, percentage natural increase, and percentage net migration, respectively. Tables IB, IC, and ID present the detailed data that are presented in broader categories in Maps lA, IB, and IC, respectively. As far as overall change in the white population of Arkansas counties is concerned, the relevant data are presented in Table Thirty-nine of the State's 75 counties (just over IB and Map lA. ' _ half) experienced white population growth, while the remaining 36 experienced decreases. The greatest increases occurred in Faulkner, Benton, and Saline Counties, all of which experienced The I white population growth of 20% or more over the 1980s. greatest decreases were observed in the Delta counties of Phillips and Lee, each of which experienced white population 1 declines of approximately 20%. The major portion of white population growth in the State of Arkansas occurred in a northwestern quadrant delimited by drawing lines north and west from Lonoke County. Indeed, within this general area, only the counties of Pulaski, Newton, Conway, and Searcy experienced overall white population losses during the Outside of this northwestern quadrant, the counties of 1980s. Grant and Craighead also experienced fairly strong white population growth. Decreases were observed in the white populations of most counties in eastern and southern Arkansas, including those counties commonly referred to as Delta counties. Having reviewed patterns of overall growth and decline in the white population of Arkansas counties, we now turn to an examination of the specific demographic forces underlying these migration. patterns of overall change, i.e., natural increase and net \ 1 . Data on patterns of natural increase are presented in Table IC and Map IB, while net migration data are displayed in M i i Table ID and Map IC. 2q Focussing first on patterns of natural increase, we observe that 57 of Arkansas' 75 counties (76%) experienced positive natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths) within their white populations. The overwhelming majority of these counties saw "slight" rates of natural increase, i.e., rates of less than "Moderate" rates of natural increase among whites (5.0% to 5.0%. q 9.9%) were observed in 12 of the State's more metropolitan counties. 7 ' ' '' ' --i-ij 10.0%. In no county did natural increase among whites exceed q Slight natural decreases among the white population (i.e., more deaths than births) were observed in 18 counties, the greatest The counties q being the 5.6% decrease seen in Baxter County, experiencing natural decrease were, of course, counties with "older" populations. q Despite the fact that 52.0% of Arkansas counties experienced growth in their white populations during the 1980s, only 41.3% the q (31 counties) experienced net inmigration of whites
remaining 44 counties (58.7%) experienced net outmigration of whites. The counties of Faulkner, Benton, and Baxter experienced the highest rates of net white inmigration, all with 10-year inmigration rates of 19% or more. q At the other extreme were the Delta counties of Desha, Chicot, Phillips, and Lee, all of which experienced net white q outmigration of 19% or more. Indeed, all eastern or Delta counties, with the exceptions of Lonoke, Greene, and Craighead, i experienced net outmigration of their white populations during These findings suggest that the lack of economic the 1980s. 1 q opportunities in the Delta affects whites as well as blacks, even though the economic status of whites who remain in the Delta is significantly better than that of their black counterparts. q This preliminary review suggests three distinctive "types" or "patterns" of population change among the white population of the q State of Arkansas. The first of these might be called the q "metropolitan growth" pattern, in which population growth is fueled both by solid rates of natural increase and strong net inmigration. The experiences of Faulkner and Benton Counties, the two fastest growing counties in the State, best exemplify this first growth pattern. The second basic pattern of white population change might be called the "rural loss" pattern, in which population declines occur as a result of strong forces of outmigration overwhelming lower rates of natural increase. This pattern is characteristic of most counties in eastern and southern Arkansas. A third pattern might be referred to as the "older growth" pattern, in which population growth is based exclusively on net inmigration offsetting the effects of negligible or even negative natural increase. this pattern of growth. Baxter and Cleburne Counties are exemplars of 3F In setting forth these three basic "growth scenarios", wenote that in no case does significant overall growth in the white population (i.e., growth of 5.0% or more) occur in the absence of net inmigration. Natural increase or decrease can enhance or retard overall rates of population growth for whites, but patterns of net migration appear to be the main driving force of population change among whites in the State of Arkansas. (Tables lA, IB, IC, and ID, and Maps lA, IB, and IC are presented in the following 11 pages. The discussion of county-level population change among blacks begins on Page 16
Tables and Maps for blacks begin on Page 18.) the comparable I I M 4 RI I TABLE 1A: COMPONENTS OF CHANGE FOR THE WHITE POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER) I COUNTY 1980 1990 CHANGE XCHNG. BIRTHS DEATHS NAT INC XNATINC ESTHIG XESTHIG I I I 4 I I 4 4 4 4 4 Arkansas Ashley Baxter Benton Boone Bradley Calhoun Carroll Chicot Clark Clay Cleburne Cleveland Colimbia Conway Craighead Crawford Crittenden Cross Dallas Desha Drew Faulkner Franklin Fulton Garland Grant Greene Henipstead Hot Spring Howard Independence Izard Jackson Jefferson Johnson Lafayette Lawrence Lee Lincoln Little River Logan Lonoke Madison Marion Miller Mississippi Monroe Montgomery Nevada Newton Ouachita Perry Phillips Pike Poinsett Polk Pope Prairie Pulaski Randolph 19280 19230 27252 76644 25950 9736 4354 16067 8217 18133 20558 16826 6657 17270 16414 59884 35413 27928 15287 6533 11231 12940 42196 14319 9897 64106 12527 30573 16413 23626 10858 29304 10724 18697 53235 16970 5979 18221 6912 8547 10370 19630 30101 11277 11246 28322 42748 8240 7688 7664 7700 19441 7098 16100 9907 25052 16837 37758 8679 254697 16614 16816 17511 30964 94968 28038 8012 4357 18416 6692 16344 18031 19292 6681 16564 16139 64449 40974 28152 14343 5873 9500 12530 54644 14644 9969 66770 13491 31627 14888 23066 10504 30344 11266 16081 47878 17632 5884 17223 5449 8611 10820 20083 35395 11435 11899 29464 40689 6862 7718 6856 7582 19702 7780 12915 9621 22797 17035 44126 8170 252554 16322 -2464 -1719 3712 18324 2088 -1724 3 2349 -1525 -1789 -2527 2466 24 -706 -275 4565 5561 224 -944 -660 -1731 -410 12448 325 72 2664 964 1054 -1525 -560 -354 1040 542 -2616 -5357 662 -95 -998 -1463 64 450 453 5294 158 653 1142 -2059 -1378 30 -808 -118 261 682 -3185 -286 -2255 198 6368 -509 -2143 -292 -12.8 -8.9 13.6 23.9 8.0 -17.7 0.1 14.6 -18.6 -9.9 -12.3 14.7 0.4 -4.1 -1.7 7.6 15.7 0.8 -6.2 -10.1 -15.4 -3.2 29.5 2.3 0.7 4.2 7.7 3.4 -9.3 -2.4 -3.3 3.5 5.1 -14.0 -10.1 3.9 -1.6 -5.5 -21.2 0.7 4.3 2.3 17.6 1.4 5.8 4.0 -4.8 -16.7 0.4 -10.5 -1.5 1.3 9.6 -19.8 -2.9 -9.0 1.2 16.9 -5.9 -0.8 -1.8 2284 2387 2881 11870 3701 1009 440 2167 1019 1997 2231 1863 722 2172 2229 8400 5841 4237 2144 752 1554 1649 6710 2019 1109 7957 1670 4043 1986 2982 1606 4199 1100 2011 6631 2367 698 2483 851 944 1393 2805 4468 1672 1320 4383 7624 1023 855 835 1077 2796 1024 2226 1288 3457 2316 6098 1027 39730 2094 2166 1809 4410 8468 2920 1288 484 1964 848 1782 2636 2167 704 2007 1732 5395 3491 2296 1528 909 1103 1188 3660 1624 1245 8880 1280 3182 1824 2492 1361 2984 1493 2059 5042 2112 827 2207 713 754 1009 2370 2839 1289 1364 3037 4161 1011 989 1006 690 2394 855 1743 1140 2648 2082 3381 911 21935 1823 118 578 -1529 3402 781 -279 -44 203 171 215 -405 -304 18 165 497 3005 2350 1941 616 -157 451 461 3050 395 -136 -923 390 861 162 490 245 1215 -393 -48 1589 255 -129 276 138 190 384 435 1629 383 -44 1346 3463 12 -134 -171 387 402 169 483 148 809 234 2717 116 17795 271 0.6 3.0 -5.6 4.4 3.0 -2.9 -1.0 1.3 2.1 1.2 -2.0 -1.8 0.3 1.0 3.0 5.0 6.6 7.0 4.0 -2.4 4.0 3.6 7.2 2.8 -1.4 -1.4 3.1 2.8 1.0 2.1 2.3 4.1 -3.7 -0.3 3.0 1.5 -2.2 1.5 2.0 2.2 3.7 2.2 5.4 3.4 -0.4 4.8 8.1 0.1 -1.7 -2.2 5.0 2.1 2.4 3.0 1.5 3.2 1.4 7.2 1.3 7.0 1.6 -2582 -2297 5241 14922 1307 -1445 47 2146 -1696 -2004 -2122 2770 6 -871 -772 1560 3211 -1717 -1560 -503 -2182 -871 9398 -70 208 3587 574 193 -1687 -1050 -599 -175 935 -2568 -6946 407 34 -1274 -1601 -126 66 18 3665 -225 697 -204 -5522 -1390 164 -637 -505 -141 513 -3668 -434 -3064 -36 3651 -625 -19938 -563 -13.4 -11.9 19.2 19.5 5.0 -14.8 1.1 13.4 -20.6 -11.1 -10.3 16.5 0.1 -5.0 -4.7 2.6 9.1 -6.1 -10.2 -7.7 -19.4 -6.7 22.3 -0.5 2.1 5.6 4.6 0.6 -10.3 -4.4 -5.5 -0.6 8.7 -13.7 -13.0 2.4 0.6 -7.0 -23.2 -1.5 0.6 0.1 12.2 -2.0 6.2 -0.7 -12.9 -16.9 2.1 -8.3 -6.6 -0.7 7.2 -22.8 -4.4 -12.2 -0.2 9.7 -7.2 -7.8 -3.4 5r I I Saint Francis Saline Scott Searcy Sebastian Sevi er Sharp Stone Union Van Buren Wash i ngton White Woodruff Yell 16383 51361 9585 8808 87566 13097 14390 8961 34361 13258 97229 49012 7683 16551 14722 62215 10035 7750 88719 12081 13908 9687 32414 13845 108743 52509 6502 17172 -1661 10854 450 -1058 1153 -1016 -482 726 -1947 587 11514 3497 -1181 621 -10.1 21.1 4.7 -12.0 1.3 -7.8 -3.3 8.1 -5.7 4.4 11.8 7.1 -15.4 3.8 2273 7276 1225 975 13364 1670 1486 1115 4590 1379 15628 7122 929 2240 1725 3894 1160 994 8562 1538 1946 1029 4047 1527 8248 4987 963 1956 548 3382 65 -19 4802 132 -460 86 543 -148 7380 2135 -34 284 3.3 6.6 0.7 -0.2 5.5 1.0 -3.2 1.0 1.6 -1.1 7.6 4.4 -0.4 1.7 -2209 7472 385 -1039 -3649 -1148 -22 640 -2490 735 4134 1362 -1147 337 -13.5 14.5 4.0 -11.8 -4.2 -8.8 -0.2 7.1 -7.2 5.5 4.3 2.8 -14.9 2.0 I State Totals 1890322 1944744 54422 2.9 265698 196287 69411 3.7 -14989 -0.8 I SOURCES: DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS, ANNUAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS. I I a aa 6 TABLE IB: COMPONENTS OF CHANGE FOR THE WHITE POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON PERCENTAGE CHANGE) COUNTY 1980 1990 CHANGE XCHNG. BIRTHS DEATHS MATING XNATINC ESTHIG XESTHIG I 4 4 4 4 4 4 Faulkner Benton Saline Lonoke Pope Crawford Cleburne Carroll Baxter Washington Perry Stone Boone Grant Craighead White Marion Izard Scott Van Buren Little River Garland Mi Iler Johnson Yell Independence Greene Logan Franklin Madison Ouachita Sebastian Polk Crittenden Lincoln Fulton Montgomery Cleveland Calhoun Pulaski Newton Lafayette Conway Randolph Hot Spring Pike Drew Howard Sharp Columbia Mississippi Lawrence Union Prairie Cross Sevier Ashley Poinsett Hempstead Clark Jefferson 42196 76644 51361 30101 37758 35413 16826 16067 27252 97229 7098 8961 25950 12527 59884 49012 11246 10724 9585 13258 10370 64106 28322 16970 16551 29304 30573 19630 14319 11277 19441 87566 16837 27928 8547 9897 7688 6657 4354 254697 7700 5979 16414 16614 23626 9907 12940 10858 14390 17270 42748 18221 34361 8679 15287 13097 19230 25052 16413 18133 53235 54644 94968 62215 35395 44126 40974 19292 18416 30964 108743 7780 9687 28038 13491 64449 52509 11899 11266 10035 13845 10820 66770 29464 17632 17172 30344 31627 20083 14644 11435 19702 88719 17035 28152 8611 9969 7718 6681 4357 252554 7582 5884 16139 16322 23066 9621 12530 10504 13908 16564 40689 17223 32414 8170 14343 12081 17511 22797 14888 16344 47878 12448 18324 10854 5294 6368 5561 2466 2349 3712 11514 682 726 2088 964 4565 3497 653 542 450 587 450 2664 1142 662 621 1040 1054 453 325 158 261 1153 198 224 64 72 30 24 3 -2143 -118 -95 -275 -292 -560 -286 -410 -354 -482 -706 -2059 -998 -1947 -509 -944 -1016 -1719 -2255 -1525 -1789 -5357 29.5 23.9 21.1 17.6 16.9 15.7 14.7 14.6 13.6 11.8 9.6 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.1 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 2.3 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.8 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.2 -3.3 -3.3 -4.1 -4.8 -5.5 -5.7 -5.9 -6.2 -7.8 -8.9 -9.0 -9.3 -9.9 -10.1 6710 11870 7276 4468 6098 5841 1863 2167 2881 15628 1024 1115 3701 1670 8400 7122 1320 1100 1225 1379 1393 7957 4383 2367 2240 4199 4043 2805 2019 1672 2796 13364 2316 4237 944 1109 855 722 440 39730 1077 698 2229 2094 2982 1288 1649 1606 1486 2172 7624 2483 4590 1027 2144 1670 2387 3457 1986 1997 6631 3660 8468 3894 2839 3381 3491 2167 1964 4410 8248 855 1029 2920 1280 5395 4987 1364 1493 1160 1527 1009 8880 3037 2112 1956 2984 3182 2370 1624 1289 2394 8562 2082 2296 754 1245 989 704 484 21935 690 827 1732 1823 2492 1140 1188 1361 1946 2007 4161 2207 4047 911 1528 1538 1809 2648 1824 1782 5042 3050 3402 3382 1629 2717 2350 -304 203 -1529 7380 169 86 781 390 3005 2135 -44 -393 65 -148 384 -923 1346 255 284 1215 861 435 395 383 402 4802 234 1941 190 -136 -134 18 -44 17795 387 -129 497 271 490 148 461 245 -460 165 3463 276 543 116 616 132 578 809 162 215 1589 7.2 4.4 6.6 5.4 7.2 6.6 -1.8 1.3 -5.6 7.6 2.4 1.0 3.0 3.1 5.0 4.4 -0.4 -3.7 0.7 -1.1 3.7 -1.4 4.8 1.5 1.7 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.8 3.4 2.1 5.5 1.4 7.0 2.2 -1.4 -1.7 0.3 -1.0 7.0 5.0 -2.2 3.0 1.6 2.1 1.5 3.6 2.3 -3.2 1.0 8.1 1.5 1.6 1.3 4.0 1.0 3.0 3.2 1.0 1.2 3.0 9398 14922 7472 3665 3651 3211 2770 2146 5241 4134 513 640 1307 574 1560 1362 697 935 385 735 66 3587 -204 407 337 -175 193 18 -70 -225 -141 -3649 -36 -1717 -126 208 164 6 47 -19938 -505 34 -772 -563 -1050 -434 -871 -599 -22 -871 -5522 -1274 -2490 -625 -1560 -1148 -2297 -3064 -1687 -2004 -6946 22.3 19.5 14.5 12.2 9.7 9.1 16.5 13.4 19.2 4.3 7.2 7.1 5.0 4.6 2.6 2.8 6.2 8.7 4.0 5.5 0.6 5.6 -0.7 2.4 2.0 -0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.5 -2.0 -0.7 -4.2 -0.2 -6.1 -1.5 2.1 2.1 0.1 1.1 -7.8 -6.6 0.6 -4.7 -3.4 -4.4 -4.4 -6.7 -5.5 -0.2 -5.0 -12.9 -7.0 -7.2 -7.2 -10.2 -8.8 -11.9 -12.2 -10.3 -11.1 -13.0 7 4I Dallas Saint Francis Nevada Searcy Clay Arkansas Jackson Woodruff Desha Monroe Bradley Chicot Philli ps Lee 6533 16383 7664 8808 20558 19280 18697 7683 11231 8240 9736 8217 16100 6912 5873 14722 6856 7750 18031 16816 16081 6502 9500 6862 8012 6692 12915 5449 -660 -1661 -808 -1058 -2527 -2464 -2616 -1181 -1731 -1378 -1724 -1525 -3185 -1463 -10.1 -10.1 -10.5 -12.0 -12.3 -12.8 -14.0 -15.4 -15.4 -16.7 -17.7 -18.6 -19.8 -21.2 752 2273 835 975 2231 2284 2011 929 1554 1023 1009 1019 2226 851 909 1725 1006 994 2636 2166 2059 963 1103 1011 1288 848 1743 713 -157 548 -171 -19 -405 118 -48 -34 451 12 -279 171 483 138 -2.4 3.3 -2.2 -0.2 -2.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.4 4.0 0.1 -2.9 2.1 3.0 2.0 -503 -2209 -637 -1039 -2122 -2582 -2568 -1147 -2182 -1390 -1445 -1696 -3668 -1601 -7.7 -13.5 -8.3 -11.8 -10.3 -13.4 -13.7 -14.9 -19.4 -16.9 -14.8 -20.6 -22.8 -23.2 State Totals 1890322 1944744 SOURCES: 54422 2.9 265698 196287 69411 3.7 -14989 -0.8 DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS, ANNUAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS. I I I 1 I t 1 8 I TABLE IC: COMPONENTS OF CHANGE FOR THE WHITE POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON PERCENTAGE NATURAL INCREASE) COUNTY 1980 1990 CHANGE XCHNG. BIRTHS DEATHS MATING XMATINC ESTMIG XESTHIG I I 4 aaa a Mississippi Washington Faulkner Pope Pulaski Crittenden Crawford Sa Ii ne Sebast i an Lonoke Newton Craighead Miller Benton White Independence Cross Desha Little River Drew Madison Saint Francis Poinsett Grant Conway Boone Ashley Phillips Jefferson Greene Franklin Perry Howard Lincoln Logan Chicot Hot Spring Ouachita Lee Yell Randolph Union Lawrence Johnson Pike Polk Prai rie Carroll Clark Sevier Hempstead Stone Columbia Scott Arkansas Cleveland Monroe Searcy Jackson Marion Woodruff 42748 97229 42196 37758 254697 27928 35413 51361 87566 30101 7700 59884 28322 76644 49012 29304 15287 11231 10370 12940 11277 16383 25052 12527 16414 25950 19230 16100 53235 30573 14319 7098 10858 8547 19630 8217 23626 19441 6912 16551 16614 34361 18221 16970 9907 16837 8679 16067 18133 13097 16413 8961 17270 9585 19280 6657 8240 8808 18697 11246 7683 40689 108743 54644 44126 252554 28152 40974 62215 88719 35395 7582 64449 29464 94968 52509 30344 14343 9500 10820 12530 11435 14722 22797 13491 16139 28038 17511 12915 47878 31627 14644 7780 10504 8611 20083 6692 23066 19702 5449 17172 16322 32414 17223 17632 9621 17035 8170 18416 16344 12081 14888 9687 16564 10035 16816 6681 6862 7750 16081 11899 6502 -2059 11514 12448 6368 -2143 224 5561 10854 1153 5294 -118 4565 1142 18324 3497 1040 -944 -1731 450 -410 158 -1661 -2255 964 -275 2088 -1719 -3185 -5357 1054 325 682 -354 64 453 -1525 -560 261 -1463 621 -292 -1947 -998 662 -286 198 -509 2349 -1789 -1016 -1525 726 -706 450 -2464 24 -1378 -1058 -2616 653 -1181 -4.8 11.8 29.5 16.9 -0.8 0.8 15.7 21.1 1.3 17.6 -1.5 7.6 4.0 23.9 7.1 3.5 -6.2 -15.4 4.3 -3.2 1.4 -10.1 -9.0 7.7 -1.7 8.0 -8.9 -19.8 -10.1 3.4 2.3 9.6 -3.3 0.7 2.3 -18.6 -2.4 1.3 -21.2 3.8 -1.8 -5.7 -5.5 3.9 -2.9 1.2 -5.9 14.6 -9.9 -7.8 -9.3 8.1 -4.1 4.7 -12.8 0.4 -16.7 -12.0 -14.0 5.8 -15.4 7624 15628 6710 6098 39730 4237 5841 7276 13364 4468 1077 8400 4383 11870 7122 4199 2144 1554 1393 1649 1672 2273 3457 1670 2229 3701 2387 2226 6631 4043 2019 1024 1606 944 2805 1019 2982 2796 851 2240 2094 4590 2483 2367 1288 2316 1027 2167 1997 1670 1986 1115 2172 1225 2284 722 1023 975 2011 1320 929 4161 8248 3660 3381 21935 2296 3491 3894 8562 2839 690 5395 3037 8468 4987 2984 1528 1103 1009 1188 1289 1725 2648 1280 1732 2920 1809 1743 5042 3182 1624 855 1361 754 2370 848 2492 2394 713 1956 1823 4047 2207 2112 1140 2082 911 1964 1782 1538 1824 1029 2007 1160 2166 704 1011 994 2059 1364 963 3463 7380 3050 2717 17795 1941 2350 3382 4802 1629 387 3005 1346 3402 2135 1215 616 451 384 461 383 548 809 390 497 781 578 483 1589 861 395 169 245 190 435 171 490 402 138 284 271 543 276 255 148 234 116 203 215 132 162 86 165 65 118 18 12 -19 -48 -44 -34 8.1 7.6 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.6 6.6 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -5522 4134 9398 3651 -19938 -1717 3211 7472 -3649 3665 -505 1560 -204 14922 1362 -175 -1560 -2182 66 -871 -225 -2209 -3064 574 -772 1307 -2297 -3668 -6946 193 -70 513 -599 -126 18 -1696 -1050 -141 -1601 337 -563 -2490 -1274 407 -434 -36 -625 2146 -2004 -1148 -1687 640 -871 385 -2582 6 -1390 -1039 -2568 697 -1147 -12.9 4.3 22.3 9.7 -7.8 -6.1 9.1 14.5 -4.2 12.2 -6.6 2.6 -0.7 19.5 2.8 -0.6 -10.2 -19.4 0.6 -6.7 -2.0 -13.5 -12.2 4.6 -4.7 5.0 -11.9 -22.8 -13.0 0.6 -0.5 7.2 -5.5 -1.5 0.1 -20.6 -4.4 -0.7 -23.2 2.0 -3.4 -7.2 -7.0 2.4 -4.4 -0.2 -7.2 13.4 -11.1 -8.8 -10.3 7.1 -5.0 4.0 -13.4 0.1 -16.9 -11.8 -13.7 6.2 -14.9 9 I Calhoun Van Buren Fulton Garland Montgomery Cletxjrne Clay Lafayette Nevada Dallas Bradley Sharp Izard Baxter 4354 13258 9897 64106 7688 16826 20558 5979 7664 6533 9736 14390 10724 27252 4357 13845 9969 66770 7718 19292 18031 5884 6856 5873 8012 13908 11266 30964 3 587 72 2664 30 2466 -2527 -95 -808 -660 -1724 -482 542 3712 0.1 4.4 0.7 4.2 0.4 14.7 -12.3 -1.6 -10.5 -10.1 -17.7 -3.3 5.1 13.6 440 1379 1109 7957 855 1863 2231 698 835 752 1009 1486 1100 2881 484 1527 1245 8880 989 2167 2636 827 1006 909 1288 1946 1493 4410 -44 -148 -136 -923 -134 -304 -405 -129 -171 -157 -279 -460 -393 -1529 -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.7 -1.8 -2.0 -2.2 -2.2 -2.4 -2.9 -3.2 -3.7 -5.6 47 735 208 3587 164 2770 -2122 34 -637 -503 -1445 -22 935 5241 1.1 5.5 2.1 5.6 2.1 16.5 -10.3 0.6 -8.3 -7.7 -14.8 -0.2 8.7 19.2 I State Totals 1890322 1944744 54422 2.9 265698 196287 69411 3.7 -14989 -0.8 SOURCES: a DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS, ANNUAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS. a a a a a aa 10 TABLE ID: COMPONENTS OF CHANGE FOR THE WHITE POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON PERCENTAGE MIGRATION) COUNTY 1980 1990 CHANGE XCHNG. BIRTHS DEATHS MATING XNATINC ESTMIG XESTMIG aaaaaaa aa Faulkner Benton Baxter Cleburne Saline Carroll Lonoke Pope Crawford Izard Perry Stone Marion Garland Van Buren Boone Grant Wash i ngton Scott White Craighead Johnson Montgomery Fulton Yell Calhoun Little River Greene Lafayette Logan Cleveland Sharp Polk Franklin Independence Miller Ouachita Lincoln Madison Randolph Sebastian Pike Hot Spring Conway Columbia Howard Crittenden Newton Drew Laurence Prairie Union Dallas Pulaski Nevada Sevier Cross Henipstead Clay Clark Searcy 42196 76644 27252 16826 51361 16067 30101 37758 35413 10724 7098 8961 11246 64106 13258 25950 12527 97229 9585 49012 59884 16970 7688 9897 16551 4354 10370 30573 5979 19630 6657 14390 16837 14319 29304 28322 19441 8547 11277 16614 87566 9907 23626 16414 17270 10858 27928 7700 12940 18221 8679 34361 6533 254697 7664 13097 15287 16413 20558 18133 8808 54644 94968 30964 19292 62215 18416 35395 44126 40974 11266 7780 9687 11899 66770 13845 28038 13491 108743 10035 52509 64449 17632 7718 9969 17172 4357 10820 31627 5884 20083 6681 13908 17035 14644 30344 29464 19702 8611 11435 16322 88719 9621 23066 16139 16564 10504 28152 7582 12530 17223 8170 32414 5873 252554 6856 12081 14343 14888 18031 16344 7750 12448 18324 3712 2466 10854 2349 5294 6368 5561 542 682 726 653 2664 587 2088 964 11514 450 3497 4565 662 30 72 621 3 450 1054 -95 453 24 -482 198 325 1040 1142 261 64 158 -292 1153 -286 -560 -275 -706 -354 224 -118 -410 -998 -509 -1947 -660 -2143 -808 -1016 -944 -1525 -2527 -1789 -1058 29.5 23.9 13.6 14.7 21.1 14.6 17.6 16.9 15.7 5.1 9.6 8.1 5.8 4.2 4.4 8.0 7.7 11.8 4.7 7.1 7.6 3.9 0.4 0.7 3.8 0.1 4.3 3.4 -1.6 2.3 0.4 -3.3 1.2 2.3 3.5 4.0 1.3 0.7 1.4 -1.8 1.3 -2.9 -2.4 -1.7 -4.1 -3.3 0.8 -1.5 -3.2 -5.5 -5.9 -5.7 -10.1 -0.8 -10.5 -7.8 -6.2 -9.3 -12.3 -9.9 -12.0 6710 11870 2881 1863 7276 2167 4468 6098 5841 1100 1024 1115 1320 7957 1379 3701 1670 15628 1225 7122 8400 2367 855 1109 2240 440 1393 4043 698 2805 722 1486 2316 2019 4199 4383 2796 944 1672 2094 13364 1288 2982 2229 2172 1606 4237 1077 1649 2483 1027 4590 752 39730 835 1670 2144 1986 2231 1997 975 3660 8468 4410 2167 3894 1964 2839 3381 3491 1493 855 1029 1364 8880 1527 2920 1280 8248 1160 4987 5395 2112 989 1245 1956 484 1009 3182 827 2370 704 1946 2082 1624 2984 3037 2394 754 1289 1823 8562 1140 2492 1732 2007 1361 2296 690 1188 2207 911 4047 909 21935 1006 1538 1528 1824 2636 1782 994 3050 3402 -1529 -304 3382 203 1629 2717 2350 -393 169 86 -44 -923 -148 781 390 7380 65 2135 3005 255 -134 -136 284 -44 384 861 -129 435 18 -460 234 395 1215 1346 402 190 383 271 4802 148 490 497 165 245 1941 387 461 276 116 543 -157 17795 -171 132 616 162 -405 215 -19 7.2 4.4 -5.6 -1.8 6.6 1.3 5.4 7.2 6.6 -3.7 2.4 1.0 -0.4 -1.4 -1.1 3.0 3.1 7.6 0.7 4.4 5.0 1.5 -1.7 -1.4 1.7 -1.0 3.7 2.8 -2.2 2.2 0.3 -3.2 1.4 2.8 4.1 4.8 2.1 2.2 3.4 1.6 5.5 1.5 2.1 3.0 1.0 2.3 7.0 5.0 3.6 1.5 1.3 1.6 -2.4 7.0 -2.2 1.0 4.0 1.0 -2.0 1.2 -0.2 9398 14922 5241 2770 7472 2146 3665 3651 3211 935 513 640 697 3587 735 1307 574 4134 385 1362 1560 407 164 208 337 47 66 193 34 18 6 -22 -36 -70 -175 -204 -141 -126 -225 -563 -3649 -434 -1050 -772 -871 -599 -1717 -505 -871 -1274 -625 -2490 -503 -19938 -637 -1148 -1560 -1687 -2122 -2004 -1039 22.3 19.5 19.2 16.5 14.5 13.4 12.2 9.7 9.1 8.7 7.2 7.1 6.2 5.6 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -2.0 -3.4 -4.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.7 -5.0 -5.5 -6.1 -6.6 -6.7 -7.0 -7.2 -7.2 -7.7 -7.8 -8.3 -8.8 -10.2 -10.3 -10.3 -11.1 -11.8 11 I Ia aa a Ashley Poinsett Mississippi Jefferson Arkansas Saint Francis Jackson Bradley Woodruff Monroe Desha Chicot Phillips Lee 19230 25052 42748 53235 19280 16383 18697 9736 7683 8240 11231 8217 16100 6912 17511 22797 40689 47878 16816 14722 16081 8012 6502 6862 9500 6692 12915 5449 -1719 -2255 -2059 -5357 -2464 -1661 -2616 -1724 -1181 -1378 -1731 -1525 -3185 -1463 -8.9 -9.0 -4.8 -10.1 -12.8 -10.1 -14.0 -17.7 -15.4 -16.7 -15.4 -18.6 -19.8 -21.2 2387 3457 7624 6631 2284 2273 2011 1009 929 1023 1554 1019 2226 851 1809 2648 4161 5042 2166 1725 2059 1288 963 1011 1103 848 1743 713 578 809 3463 1589 118 548 -48 -279 -34 12 451 171 483 138 3.0 3.2 8.1 3.0 0.6 3.3 -0.3 -2.9 -0.4 0.1 4.0 2.1 3.0 2.0 -2297 -3064 -5522 -6946 -2582 -2209 -2568 -1445 -1147 -1390 -2182 -1696 -3668 -1601 -11.9 -12.2 -12.9 -13.0 -13.4 -13.5 -13.7 -14.8 -14.9 -16.9 -19.4 -20.6 -22.8 -23.2 State Totals 1890322 1944744 54422 2.9 265698 196287 69411 3.7 -14989 -0.8 SOURCES: DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS, ANNUAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS. 12 a A P I 4 CHANGE IN THE WHITE POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 hWTpN Percentage Change SEB MAOISM RANK :-S LdfsAM POLK^ HI FMfiNTC: ! i EVIEI L RI' SEARCY aSHZRI STONE^? .............. l^^!gS!KlStVT INDEP
, VAN a
jl corjw PEW
ji, Pl.iLASMlIt GARLfin A' ST_ hot s'-'Rt. iiihiKE A. GRANT Loss of 1 0,0% or more r . CLARK 1 L rAUAS\ U\WR /JACK ibs^ V POINSEn . Loss of 5.0% to 9.9% WHnE _ JEFF lOD CROSS jjCflIT-Loss of less than 5.0X RAIR MONI ARKANSAS ST FRAN LEE IILLIPS, Gain of 5.0% to 9.9X Gain of less than 5.0% ) aEVE UNC >
T DESHA C'U/'Slj l
'BPArif FREW 5
Gain of 10,0% or more t' IOLUMEJ UNION .ASHLEY / / :hig< M A p I S : NATURAL INCREASE AMONG THE WHITE POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 'RROLL boone MARIO1 FULTON Percentage Change 1 VIASH '7P' MAOISM l^lfEWTONl SEARCY .GARO SHARI' Decrease of 10.0% or more C^QNE ><L L/l" r-L-*'.: ilCRAWU:-
.. TRANK j'oi^N, VAN B IN^Y^ [SCRiRAAIlGGHHEEAAOB 9 - , wwiSwaiiK' '"Ml fj WPOPEI CCLEB ip/ SEB': LOGAN 1 co NW, TELL SCOTT PERRY. y^MffiPUlASKI Yof IK POLK/
MONTG GARLND M^NI
< lH0W WT SPRG grant JEFF PdiNSETT
: CROSS l-CRfT.' STFRAN:- LEE-IHltLIfe iF Decrease of 5.0% to 9,9% Decrease of less than 5.0% Increase of less than 5.0% sEyi :iajtRK'- CALLAS' Increase of 5.0% to 9.9% L.RiVEBSr 4IL1
NEV OUACI CALM SCOLUMB piivE UR(C
'BRAD 5^ :Dl Increase of 10.0% or more < LINION,. ?: ASilLpr : :Hfl AI A P I c : NET MIGRATION AMONG THE WHITE POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 WASH rCRAWp SEB POLK' O BOONE U.iDISfl ' ^301 RAMI' SAft li SI II I OH' FULTON J? IviZARDl SHARI' NEWTON SEARCr JTw tPOPE + V'*? J 'ONM inoIp rjAiCK corw WHTTE-S: sPil E SEMEH L-RIVEI A- /\PERfrY]ij RAULKi 1^1^ P LILAS KI k i! 'I^IR MQNI GARLND..^ HOT SPRL'l CRAHT CLARK DA! IAS JEFF ar.'E ARKANSAS UHC HFMF's.
/ N/EV 'T DESrtA^ CLAY? .'.. A-. iHtgreei <CRAI6I <pdiNSETr - CRO^^ CRIT^ ST LEE '.X IILU^ Percentage Migration J'P7l
- 10.0% or more out 5.0% to 9.9% out Less than 5.0% out Less than 5.0% in 5.0% to 9.9% in reOLUUB OLIACIJ CALH BPAEl LFREW liSiC'H ASHLEY
hici 10.0% or more in Population Change and Its Components Among Blacks I As the State-level numbers indicate, the 1980s constituted a decade of no appreciable growth in the size of the black 12% natural increase was population of the State of Arkansas
offset by 12% net outmigration to produce no overall change. I At the level of counties, increases in the overall size of the black population were observed in only 6 of the 35 counties for which data are available. (See Table 2B and Map 2A, and Note 1 I for a discussion of data limitations for the black population.) The remaining 29 counties (82.9% of the counties for which data are available) experienced decreases in their black populations I over the 1980s. (Note 1 also reminds us that these 35 counties I encompass 92% of the total black population of the State of Arkansas, so that these 35 counties provide fairly complete coverage of the black population.) The greatest increases in black populations occurred in Howard and Pulaski Counties, with black population growth of 17.4% and i 13.3%, respectively. Lincoln County experienced a 2.9% increase i in its black population during the 1980s, while Crittenden, Union, and Jefferson Counties experienced increases of under 1.0%. I At the other end of the continuum, 10 counties experienced overall black population declines of 10.0% or more, with the greatest decrease occurring in Monroe County, with a 22.9% drop. I a As we examine the demographic dynamics underlying these patterns of overall population change, we begin to see that the demographic experiences of whites and blacks in the State of Arkansas over the past decade are qualitatively as well as quantitatively different. I First, all 35 counties for which data are available showed natural increase (an excess of births over deaths) among their none showed natural decrease (an excess of black populations
deaths over births). (See Table 2C and Map 2B.) This contrasts with the experience of the white populations of Arkansas counties, of which 76.0% showed natural increase and 24.0% showed natural decrease. For the State as a whole, the total population (i.e., all races) showed a natural increase of 5.1%. For the black population, only three counties (Bradley, Hot Spring, and Calhoun) showed natural increase below that level. The highest rates of black natural increase were observed in Pulaski and Mississippi Counties, with percentage increases of 17.4% and 16.7%, respectively. However, almost as consistently as all 35 counties showed natural increase within their black populations, all but one of these 35 I counties showed net outmigration of blacks. (See Table 2D and Map 2C.) The only exception to this pattern of net outmigration 16 i V is Howard County in southwestern Arkansas, which showed 7.1% net inmigration of blacks. i V Thirty of the 35 counties for which data were available showed net black outmigration of 10.0% or more, with four of these counties (Desha, Phillips, Lonoke, and Monroe) showing net black outmigration of more than 25.0%. When its 7.1% net black inmigration is considered together with its 10.3% black natural increase, we see how it came to pass that Howard County experienced the largest overall percentage increase in its black population (17.4%). The experience of Howard County can be contrasted with that of Pulaski County, the county with the second largest percentage increase in its black population. In the case of Pulaski County, the 13.3% increase in its black population is attributable to 17.4% natural increase (the highest in the State among any racial group) and 4.2% net outmigration. This review of population change in the black populations of Arkansas counties suggests yet a fourth "basic type" of This pattern is 9 population change, the "black Delta" pattern. characterized by significant overall population decline, due to massive outmigration in the face of strong forces of natural increase. This pattern contrasts with the "rural loss" pattern 9 observed among whites, in which more moderate overall population declines are seen as the result of strong outmigration and weaker natural increase. 9 Even in the eastern Delta counties, where both white and black populations sustained significant losses during the 1980s, the contrast between the "black Delta" pattern and the more general 9 "rural loss" scenario is readily apparent. Indeed, the largest percentage decrease in white population occurred in Lee County, where the County's overall white population decline of 21.2% 9 9 exceeded the County's overall black population loss of 12.1%. However, when we decompose these overall decreases into natural increase and net migration components, we see that net black outmigration was nearly as large as net white outmigration (23.2% versus 21.9%) . 9 In Phillips County, the county with the second largest percentage decrease in its white population, the decomposition is even more interesting. Although Phillips County's overall percentage decrease in its white population was greater than that for blacks (19.8% versus 14.4%), decomposition analysis shows that the net outmigration rate for Phillips County blacks was greater than that of Phillips County whites (26.8% versus 22.8%). Although net migration appears to be the driving force of overall population change for blacks just as it is for whites, the strong rates of natural increase obseirved among blacks require that both factors be taken into account in any comparison of population change among whites and blacks in the State of Arkansas. 17 TABLE 2A: COMPONENTS OF CHANGE FOR THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER) COUNTY 1980 1990 CHANGE XCHNG, BIRTHS DEATHS HATING ZNATINC ESTMIG XESTMIG ii II I I i Arkansas Ashley Bradley Calhoun Chicot Clark Cleveland Columbia Conway Crittenden Cross Dallas Desha Drew Hempstead Hot Spring Howard Jackson Jefferson Lafayette Lee Lincoln Little River Lonoke Miller Mississippi Monroe Nevada Ouach i ta Phillips Prairie Pulaski Saint Francis Union Woodruff 4805 7237 4022 1706 9414 5079 1194 9242 2974 21207 5068 3957 8444 4886 7062 3014 2486 2887 36825 4189 8520 4794 3470 4218 9136 16164 5738 3398 11002 18410 1417 81407 14190 13970 3490 4738 6616 3648 1447 8859 4913 1059 8992 2876 21401 4782 3698 7139 4754 6464 2865 2919 2759 36877 3711 7487 4935 2931 3536 8625 16006 4422 3196 10739 15753 1294 92200 13521 14061 2991 -67 -621 -374 -259 -555 -166 -135 -250 -98 194 -286 -259 -1305 -132 -598 -149 433 -128 52 -478 -1033 141 -539 -682 -511 -158 -1316 -202 -263 -2657 -123 10793 -669 91 -499 -1.4 -8.6 -9.3 -15.2 -5.9 -3.3 -11.3 -2.7 -3.3 0.9 -5.6 -6.5 -15.5 -2.7 -8.5 -4.9 17.4 -4.4 0.1 -11.4 -12.1 2.9 -15.5 -16.2 -5.6 -1.0 -22.9 -5.9 -2.4 -14.4 -8.7 13.3 -4.7 0.7 -14.3 1065 1402 703 271 2027 885 225 1750 546 5333 1254 767 1847 974 1292 513 586 611 8146 726 1894 845 519 855 1770 4307 1180 568 2307 4563 262 21253 3490 3031 713 604 805 504 222 1182 544 134 1059 347 2341 516 482 928 447 814 367 330 357 3772 496 1060 447 317 400 932 1607 738 382 1377 2293 167 7062 1502 1697 472 461 597 199 49 845 341 91 691 199 2992 738 285 919 527 478 146 256 254 4374 230 834 398 202 455 838 2700 442 186 930 2270 95 14191 1988 1334 241 9.6 8.2 4.9 2.9 9.0 6.7 7.6 7.5 6.7 14.1 14.6 7.2 10.9 10.8 6.8 4.8 10.3 8.8 11.9 5.5 9.8 8.3 5.8 10.8 9.2 16.7 7.7 5.5 8.5 12.3 6.7 17.4 14.0 9.5 6.9 -528 -1218 -573 -308 -1400 -507 -226 -941 -297 -2798 -1024 -544 -2224 -659 -1076 -295 177 -382 -4322 -708 -1867 -257 -741 -1137 -1349 -2858 -1758 -388 -1193 -4927 -218 -3398 -2657 -1243 -740 -11.0 -16.8 -14.2 -18.1 -14.9 -10.0 -18.9 -10.2 -10.0 -13.2 -20.2 -13.7 -26.3 -13.5 -15.2 -9.8 7.1 -13.2 -11.7 -16.9 -21.9 -5.4 -21.4 -27.0 -14.8 -17.7 -30.6 -11.4 -10.8 -26.8 -15.4 -4.2 -18.7 -8.9 -21.2 State Totals 373768 373912 144 0.0 84607 39615 44992 12.0 -44848 -12.0 SOURCES
DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. I U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS, ANNUAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS. I 18 V H TABLE 2B: COMPONENTS OF CHANGE FOR THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON PERCENTAGE CHANGE) V COUNTY 1980 1990 CHANGE XCHNG. BIRTHS DEATHS MATING XNATINC ESTHIG XESTHIG aaaaaa Howard Pulaski Lincoln Cri ttenden Union Jefferson Mississippi Arkansas Ouach i ta Drew Columbia Clark Conway Jackson Saint Francis Hot Spring Milter Cross Chicot Nevada Dallas Hempstead Ashley Prairie Bradley Cleveland Lafayette Lee Woodruff Phillips Calhoun Desha Little River Lorwke Monroe 2486 81407 4794 21207 13970 36825 16164 4805 11002 4886 9242 5079 2974 2887 14190 3014 9136 5068 9414 3398 3957 7062 7237 1417 4022 1194 4189 8520 3490 18410 1706 8444 3470 4218 5738 2919 92200 4935 21401 14061 36877 16006 4738 10739 4754 8992 4913 2876 2759 13521 2865 8625 4782 8859 3196 3698 6464 6616 1294 3648 1059 3711 7487 2991 15753 1447 7139 2931 3536 4422 433 10793 141 194 91 52 -158 -67 -263 -132 -250 -166 -98 -128 -669 -149 -511 -286 -555 -202 -259 -598 -621 -123 -374 -135 -478 -1033 -499 -2657 -259 -1305 -539 -682 -1316 17.4 13.3 2.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 -1.0 -1.4 -2.4 -2.7 -2.7 -3.3 -3.3 -4.4 -4.7 -4.9 -5.6 -5.6 -5.9 -5.9 -6.5 -8.5 -8.6 -8.7 -9.3 -11.3 -11.4 -12.1 -14.3 -14.4 -15.2 -15.5 -15.5 -16.2 -22.9 586 21253 845 5333 3031 8146 4307 1065 2307 974 1750 885 546 611 3490 513 1770 1254 2027 568 767 1292 1402 262 703 225 726 1894 713 4563 271 1847 519 855 1180 330 7062 447 2341 1697 3772 1607 604 1377 447 1059 544 347 357 1502 367 932 516 1182 382 482 814 805 167 504 134 496 1060 472 2293 222 928 317 400 738 256 14191 398 2992 1334 4374 2700 461 930 527 691 341 199 254 1988 146 838 738 845 186 285 478 597 95 199 91 230 834 241 2270 49 919 202 455 442 10.3 17.4 8.3 14.1 9.5 11.9 16.7 9.6 8.5 10.8 7.5 6.7 6.7 8.8 14.0 4.8 9.2 14.6 9.0 5.5 7.2 6.8 8.2 6.7 4.9 7.6 5.5 9.8 6.9 12.3 2.9 10.9 5.8 10.8 7.7 177 -3398 -257 -2798 -1243 -4322 -2858 -528 -1193 -659 -941 -507 -297 -382 -2657 -295 -1349 -1024 -1400 -388 -544 -1076 -1218 -218 -573 -226 -708 -1867 -740 -4927 -308 -2224 -741 -1137 -1758 7.1 -4.2 -5.4 -13.2 -8.9 -11.7 -17.7 -11.0 -10.8 -13.5 -10.2 -10.0 -10.0 -13.2 -18.7 -9.8 -14.8 -20.2 -14.9 -11.4 -13.7 -15.2 -16.8 -15.4 -14.2 -18.9 -16.9 -21.9 -21.2 -26.8 -18.1 -26.3 -21.4 -27.0 -30.6 State Totals 373768 373912 144 0.0 84607 39615 44992 12.0 -44848 -12.0 a SOURCES: DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. a U.S. DEPARTHENT OF HEALTH AND HUHAN SERVICES, NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS, ANNUAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS. a 19 TABLE 2C: COHPONENTS OF CHANGE FOR THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON PERCENTAGE NATURAL INCREASE) COUNTY 1980 1990 CHANGE XCHNG. BIRTHS DEATHS MATING XNATINC ESTHIG XESTHIG aa Pulaski Hississippi Cross Crittenden Saint Francis Phillips Jefferson Desha Lonoke Drew Howard Lee Arkansas Union Hi Iler Ch i cot Jackson Ouachita Lincoln Ashley Honroe Cleveland Coltrnbia Dallas Uoodruff Hempstead Clark Prairie Conway Little River Lafayette Nevada Bradley Hot Spring Calhoun 81407 16164 5068 21207 14190 18410 36825 8444 4218 4886 2486 8520 4805 13970 9136 9414 2887 11002 4794 7237 5738 1194 9242 3957 3490 7062 5079 1417 2974 3470 4189 3398 4022 3014 1706 92200 16006 4782 21401 13521 15753 36877 7139 3536 4754 2919 7487 4738 14061 8625 8859 2759 10739 4935 6616 4422 1059 8992 3698 2991 6464 4913 1294 2876 2931 3711 3196 3648 2865 1447 10793 -158 -286 194 -669 -2657 52 -1305 -682 -132 433 -1033 -67 91 -511 -555 -128 -263 141 -621 -1316 -135 -250 -259 -499 -598 -166 -123 -98 -539 -478 -202 -374 -149 -259 13.3 -1.0 -5.6 0.9 -4.7 -14.4 0.1 -15.5 -16.2 -2.7 17.4 -12.1 -1.4 0.7 -5.6 -5.9 -4.4 -2.4 2.9 -8.6 -22.9 -11.3 -2.7 -6.5 -14.3 -8.5 -3.3 -8.7 -3.3 -15.5 -11.4 -5.9 -9.3 -4.9 -15.2 21253 4307 1254 5333 3490 4563 8146 1847 855 974 586 1894 1065 3031 1770 2027 611 2307 845 1402 1180 225 1750 767 713 1292 885 262 546 519 726 568 703 513 271 7062 1607 516 2341 1502 2293 3772 928 400 447 330 1060 604 1697 932 1182 357 1377 447 805 738 134 1059 482 472 814 544 167 347 317 496 382 504 367 222 14191 2700 738 2992 1988 2270 4374 919 455 527 256 834 461 1334 838 845 254 930 398 597 442 91 691 285 241 478 341 95 199 202 230 186 199 146 49 17.4 16.7 14.6 14.1 14.0 12.3 11.9 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.3 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.8 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.8 2.9 -3398 -2858 -1024 -2798 -2657 -4927 -4322 -2224 -1137 -659 177 -1867 -528 -1243 -1349 -1400 -382 -1193 -257 -1218 -1758 -226 -941 -544 -740 -1076 -507 -218 -297 -741 -708 -388 -573 -295 -308 -4.2 -17.7 -20.2 -13.2 -18.7 -26.8 -11.7 -26.3 -27.0 -13.5 7.1 -21.9 -11.0 -8.9 -14.8 -14.9 -13.2 -10.8 -5.4 -16.8 -30.6 -18.9 -10.2 -13.7 -21.2 -15.2 -10.0 -15.4 -10.0 -21.4 -16.9 -11.4 -14.2 -9.8 -18.1 State Totals 373768 373912 144 0.0 84607 39615 44992 12.0 -44848 -12.0 a SOURCES: DIVISION OF DEHOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. a U.S. DEPARTHENT OF HEALTH AND HUHAN SERVICES, NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS, ANNUAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS. 20 H II TABLE 2D: COMPONENTS OF CHANGE FOR THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON PERCENTAGE MIGRATION) H COUNTY 1980 1990 CHANGE %CHNG. BIRTHS DEATHS NAT INC XNATINC ESTMIG XESTMIG II II Howard Pulaski Lincoln Union Hot Spring Clark Conway Columbia Ouachita Arkansas Nevada Jefferson Crittenden Jackson Drew Dallas Bradley Milter Chicot Hempstead Prai rie Ash I ey Lafayette Mississippi Calhoun Saint Francis Cleveland Cross Woodruff Little River Lee Desha Phillips Lonoke Monroe 2486 81407 4794 13970 3014 5079 2974 9242 11002 4805 3398 36825 21207 2887 4886 3957 4022 9136 9414 7062 1417 7237 4189 16164 1706 14190 1194 5068 3490 3470 8520 8444 18410 4218 5738 2919 92200 4935 14061 2865 4913 2876 8992 10739 4738 3196 36877 21401 2759 4754 3698 3648 8625 8859 6464 1294 6616 3711 16006 1447 13521 1059 4782 2991 2931 7487 7139 15753 3536 4422 433 10793 141 91 -149 -166 -98 -250 -263 -67 -202 52 194 -128 -132 -259 -374 -511 -555 -598 -123 -621 -478 -158 -259 -669 -135 -286 -499 -539 -1033 -1305 -2657 -682 -1316 17.4 13.3 2.9 0.7 -4.9 -3.3 -3.3 -2.7 -2.4 -1.4 -5.9 0.1 0.9 -4.4 -2.7 -6.5 -9.3 -5.6 -5.9 -8.5 -8.7 -8.6 -11.4 -1.0 -15.2 -4.7 -11.3 -5.6 -14.3 -15.5 -12.1 -15.5 -14.4 -16.2 -22.9 586 21253 845 3031 513 885 546 1750 2307 1065 568 8146 5333 611 974 767 703 1770 2027 1292 262 1402 726 4307 271 3490 225 1254 713 519 1894 1847 4563 855 1180 330 7062 447 1697 367 544 347 1059 1377 604 382 3772 2341 357 447 482 504 932 1182 814 167 805 496 1607 222 1502 134 516 472 317 1060 928 2293 400 738 256 14191 398 1334 146 341 199 691 930 461 186 4374 2992 254 527 285 199 838 845 478 95 597 230 2700 49 1988 91 738 241 202 834 919 2270 455 442 10.3 17.4 8.3 9.5 4.8 6.7 6.7 7.5 8.5 9.6 5.5 11.9 14.1 8.8 10.8 7.2 4.9 9.2 9.0 6.8 6.7 8.2 5.5 16.7 2.9 14.0 7.6 14.6 6.9 5.8 9.8 10.9 12.3 10.8 7.7 177 -3398 -257 -1243 -295 -507 -297 -941 -1193 -528 -388 -4322 -2798 -382 -659 -544 -573 -1349 -1400 -1076 -218 -1218 -708 -2858 -308 -2657 -226 -1024 -740 -741 -1867 -2224 -4927 -1137 -1758 7.1 -4.2 -5.4 -8.9 -9.8 -10.0 -10.0 -10.2 -10.8 -11.0 -11.4 -11.7 -13.2 -13.2 -13.5 -13.7 -14.2 -14.8 -14.9 -15.2 -15.4 -16.8 -16.9 17.7 -18.1 -18.7 -18.9 -20.2 -21.2 -21.4 -21.9 -26.3 -26.8 -27.0 -30.6 n I State Totals 373768 373912 144 0.0 84607 39615 44992 12.0 -44848 -12.0 SOURCES: DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS, ANNUAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS. 21gl g HI MA^ 2 4 CHANGE IN THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 T Percentage Change BENTON CAvRRFROLL BOONE MARIOT No data lor blacks WASH MADISN NEWTON SEARCY STONE ----- lJI________ - CRAIGHEAD INDEP MISS, CRAW RANK JOHN VAN B POPE CLEB POINSETT Loss of 10.0% or mors SEB LOGAN CO NW Jfaulk TELL SCOK PERRY POLK SEVIEI L RIVER MONTG GARLND SALINI wi- LONG PIKE ^MP .4ILLEfr h . HOT SPRG grant CLARK CALLAS' y.EFF CLE'yE NEV OUACI CALH 'BRAof COLUHB ASHLEY. CROSS WHITE DREW WACK :CRir- Loss of 5.0% to 9.9% Loss of less than 5,0% Goin of less than 5.0% Gain of 5.0% to 9.9% Gain of 10.0% or more V J I e: NATURAL INCREASE AMONG THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 ? BENTON CARROLL BOONE MARI 01 ElAX FULTON RAND CLAY Percentage Change WASH MADISN NEWTON SEARCY IZARD SHARP LAWR 'GREENE No data tor blacks STONE CRAW RANK JOHN VAN B SEB LOGAN YELL POPE CONW, SCOTT POLK MONTG PIKE SEVIEI L RIVER HEMP tILLERs
CLEB TT-'-yFAULK PERRY GARLND SALINI ^r SPRG grant CLARK': . ( : .dDALI^' NEV\ dtWci CMH 8|!6sbi Tfi INDEP fJACif :RAIGHEAD POINSETT Decrease of 10.0% or more WHITE Decrease of 5.0% to 9.9% Decrease of less than 5.0% Increase of less than 5.0% Increase of 5,0% to 9.9% fASHLEYJ Increase of 10.0% or more 7 V ifJfSil'w, iuNkwi NET MIGRATION AMONG THE BLAGK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 TO 1990 T Percentage Migration BEMTON >RROLL BOONE MARIOI WASH MAOISM T No doto lor blacks CRAW RANK NEWTON SEARCr :Tr ------L-L,I STONE V CRAIGHEAD JOHN 1 INDEP MISS, POPE VAN B CLEB / raACK POINSETT 1 0.0% or moro out 1 SEB LOGAN CO NW, lEAULK YELL WHITE 0 SCOTT PERRT , PULASKI long PRAIR POLK HOW<I MONTG GARLND SALINi s 1 moni SEVEI CROSS ST FRAN LEE IILLIPS. CRIT 5,0% to 9.9% out Less than 5.0% out ^7 PIKE L RIVER HEMP JILLER LAB HOT SPRG grant CLARK 'CALLAS' NEV OUACI CALH GOLUMB UNION JEFF CLEVE 'brad ARKANSASf Less than 5,0% in LING r DESHA DREW ASHLEY :hic< - '|r ->: -I KU- 5.0% to 9.9X In 10.0% or more inMn Notes II 1. The birth and death data used in this report come from two main sources. Data for the white population were compiled from Arkansas Vital Statistics, an annual publication of the Arkansas Department of Health's Center for Health Statistics. Since this II locally produced publication has only recently begun to present data separately for blacks (as distinct from "nonwhites"), we were forced to turn to a different source for our birth and death data for the black population, vital Statistics of the United 11 States, an annual publication of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' National Center for Health Statistics. M However, the federal publication presents separate data for blacks only for counties whose nonwhite population numbered 10,000 or more or constituted 10.0% or more of the county's total population. As a result, our analysis of the black population is II restricted to those 35 Arkansas counties that met these criteria
those 35 counties did, however, encompass approximately 92% of the State's black population in both 1980 and 1990. II If la 25 dJ^ II Despite Differences in Overall Growth Rates, Racial Composition of the Population Remains Relatively Stable 11 Dr. Lawrence L. Santi Division of Demographic Research University of Arkansas at Little Rock II Little Rock, AR 501-569-8571 72204 II January 29, 1991 II A recent report by my colleague, Ms. Mary McGehee, examined black-white differences in rates of population growth for the State of Arkansas and its 75 counties ("Changes in Population by Race for Arkansas: 1980-1990", January 26, 1991). In the H present note, we will take another look at the race data from the 1990 Census. H In contrast to Ms. McGehee's report, which focussed on differential growth rates between whites and blacks, the present note concerns itself with the extent to which these patterns of differential change produced change in the racial composition of II Arkansas counties. More specifically, we will examine the black percentages of the 1990 populations of Arkansas counties and see the extent to which these patterns differ from those of 1980. (These data speak more directly to the headline of a story appearing in last Sunday's Arkansas Gazette, "Racial mix in the Delta is shifting." that headline might suggest.) The present results are not as dramatic as The relevant data are presented in four tables which contain the same basic information but have the counties arrayed in different If sort orders. In Table 1, counties are sorted alpabetically by county name, while in Tables 2 and 3, counties are sorted in descending order of their black percentages for 1980 and 1990, El respectively. The data in Table 4 are sorted by the differences in the black percentage of Arkansas counties between 1980 and 1990. These data are also displayed in Maps 1, 2, and 3. II In general, these data show very little change in the racial composition of Arkansas counties from 1980 to 1990. In all, 31 II of Arkansas' 75 counties (41.3% of all counties) registered slight increases in the black percentages of their populations, 25 counties (33.3%) showed slight decreases, and the remaining 19 counties (25.3%) showed no change at all (i.e., change of less than 0.1%, up or down). More specifically, the adjective "slight" used above to modify the words "increases" and "decreases" means changes in black percentages of less than plus or minus 4.0%. Indeed, in only 13 counties did the black percentage increase by as much as a single percentage point, and in only 7 counties did the black percentage decrease by one point or more. The greatest increases in the black percentage of the population were observed in Chicot, Howard, Jefferson, Lee, Pulaski, andH n Arkansas Counties, all of whom experienced increases in their black percentages of 2.0% or more. II II At the other end of the continuum, the greatest decreases were seen in Lafayette, Lonoke, Calhoun, and Little River Counties, all of whom experienced decreases in their black percentages of 2.0% or more. As a summary assessment, patterns of population change in the State of Arkansas during the 1980s have done very little to alter the State's highly concentrated racial distribution. Only three II II counties in the State (Lee, Chicot, and Phillips Counties) had "majority black" populations in 1980, and these were the same three "majority black" counties in 1990. The remaining 72 counties in the State, and this includes most of those counties we commonly refer to as "Delta counties", have been and continue to be "majority white" counties. At the other extreme, 21 counties p8.0% of all Arkansas counties) had black populations which constituted less than 1.0% of their total populations in 1980, and the number of such counties increased to 23 (30.7% of all counties) by 1990. (Franklin County and Crawford Counties were the two counties that saw their black percentages slip from just over to just under the 1.0% mark.) H M II The present note shows little change in the overall racial composition of the State and its counties during the 1980s. However, it is likely that this impression of overall stability in the racial composition of Arkansas' population masks important differences in the underlying population dynamics of the two major racial groupings in the State, and it is likely that these dynamics will vary across counties within the State. The complex n II task of sorting out the relative contributions of natural increase and net migration to the demographic experience of Arkansas during the 1980s is proceeding as the appropriate data become available. II II 2TABLE 1: THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 AND 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER) 1980 1990 COUNTY BLACK TOTAL %BLACK BLACK TOTAL %BLACK CHANGE if If If If H f fl Arkansas Ashley Baxter Benton Boone Bradley Calhoun Carroll Chicot Clark Clay Cleburne Cleveland Columbia Conway Craighead Crawford Crittenden Cross Dallas Desha Drew Faulkner Franklin Fulton Garland Grant Greene Hempstead Hot Spring Howard Independence Izard Jackson Jefferson Johnson Lafayette Lawrence Lee Lincoln Little River Logan Lonoke Madison Marion 4805 7237 26 50 2 4022 1706 4 9414 5079 3 4 1194 9242 2974 2876 460 21207 5068 3957 8444 4886 3700 154 1 5756 420 5 7062 3014 2486 551 3 2887 36825 273 4189 84 8520 4794 3470 307 4218 0 2 24175 26538 27409 78115 26067 13803 6079 16203 17793 23326 20616 16909 7868 26644 19505 63239 36892 49499 20434 10515 19760 17910 46192 14705 9975 70531 13008 30744 23635 26819 13459 30147 10768 21646 90718 17423 10213 18447 15539 13369 13952 20144 34518 11373 11334 19.9 27.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 29.1 28.1 0.0 52.9 21.8 0.0 0.0 15.2 34.7 15.2 4.5 1.2 42.8 24.8 37.6 42.7 27.3 8.0 1.0 0.0 8.2 3.2 0.0 29.9 11.2 18.5 1.8 0.0 13.3 40.6 1.6 41.0 0.5 54.8 35.9 24.9 1.5 12.2 0.0 0.0 4738 6616 4 124 5 3648 1447 6 8859 4913 6 6 1059 8992 2876 3778 374 21401 4782 3698 7139 4754 4778 99 10 5604 377 20 6464 2865 2919 595 11 2759 36877 309 3711 88 7487 4935 2931 273 3536 3 6 21653 24319 31186 97499 28297 11793 5826 18654 15713 21437 18107 19411 7781 25691 19151 68956 42493 49939 19225 9614 16798 17369 60006 14897 10037 73397 13948 31804 21621 26115 13569 31192 11364 18944 85487 18221 9643 17457 13053 13690 13966 20557 39268 11618 12001 21.9 27.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 30.9 24.8 0.0 56.4 22.9 0.0 0.0 13.6 35.0 15.0 5.5 0.9 42.9 24.9 38.5 42.5 27.4 8.0 0.7 0.1 7.6 2.7 0.1 29.9 11.0 21.5 1.9 0.1 14.6 43.1 1.7 38.5 0.5 57.4 36.0 21.0 1.3 9.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 -3.2 0.0 3.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 -1.6 0.3 -0.2 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.1 -0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.3 3.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.1 -2.5 0.0 2.5 0.2 -3.9 -0.2 -3.2 0.0 0.0 3 aa I aaaaaa Miller Mississippi Monroe Montgomery Nevada Newton Ouachita Perry Phillips Pike Poinsett Polk Pope Prairie Pulaski Randolph Saint Francis Saline Scott Searcy Sebastian Sevier Sharp Stone Union Van Buren Washington White Woodruff Yell 9136 16164 5738 11 3398 5 11002 133 18410 414 1868 2 836 1417 81407 155 14190 1458 2 0 4916 783 100 7 13970 51 1475 1497 3490 352 37766 59517 14052 7771 11097 7756 30541 7266 34772 10373 27032 17007 38964 10140 340597 16834 30858 53156 9685 8847 95172 14060 14607 9022 48573 13357 100494 50835 11222 17026 24.2 27.2 40.8 0.1 30.6 0.1 36.0 1.8 52.9 4.0 6.9 0.0 2.1 14.0 23.9 0.9 46.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 5.2 5.6 0.7 0.1 28.8 0.4 1.5 2.9 31.1 2.1 8625 16006 4422 8 3196 0 10739 119 15753 378 1773 0 1129 1294 92200 146 13521 1348 1 2 5666 787 66 8 14061 41 1676 1703 2991 371 38467 57525 11333 7841 10101 7666 30574 7969 28838 10086 24664 17347 45883 9518 349660 16558 28497 64183 10205 7841 99590 13637 14109 9775 46719 14008 113409 54676 9520 17759 22.4 27.8 39.0 0.1 31.6 0.0 35.1 1.5 54.6 3.7 7.2 0.0 2.5 13.6 26.4 0.9 47.4 2.1 0.0 0.0 5.7 5.8 0.5 0.1 30.1 0.3 1.5 3.1 31.4 2.1 -1.8 0.7 -1.8 -0.0 1.0 -0.1 -0.9 -0.3 1.7 -0.2 0.3 -0.0 0.3 -0.4 2.5 -0.0 1.5 -0.6 -0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 -0.2 0.0 1.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 State Totals 373768 2286357 16.3 373912 2350725 15.9 -0.4 a SOURCE: DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. aaa 4 TABLE 2: THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 AND 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON PERCENTAGE BLACK, 1980) 1980 1990 COUNTY BLACK TOTAL %BLACK BLACK TOTAL oBLACK CHANGE II HHHH If II Lee Phillips Chicot Saint Francis Crittenden Desha Lafayette Monroe Jefferson Dallas Ouachita Lincoln Columbia Woodruff Nevada Hempstead Bradley Union Calhoun Drew Ashley Mississippi Little River Cross Miller Pulaski Clark Arkansas Howard Conway Cleveland Prairie Jackson Lonoke Hot Spring Garland Faulkner Poinsett Sevier Sebastian Craighead Pike Grant White Saline 8520 18410 9414 14190 21207 8444 4189 5738 36825 3957 11002 4794 9242 3490 3398 7062 4022 13970 1706 4886 7237 16164 3470 5068 9136 81407 5079 4805 2486 2974 1194 1417 2887 4218 3014 5756 3700 1868 783 4916 2876 414 420 1497 1458 15539 34772 17793 30858 49499 19760 10213 14052 90718 10515 30541 13369 26644 11222 11097 23635 13803 48573 6079 17910 26538 59517 13952 20434 37766 340597 23326 24175 13459 19505 7868 10140 21646 34518 26819 70531 46192 27032 14060 95172 63239 10373 13008 50835 53156 54.8 52.9 52.9 46.0 42.8 42.7 41.0 40.8 40.6 37.6 36.0 35.9 34.7 31.1 30.6 29.9 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 24.9 24.8 24.2 23.9 21.8 19.9 18.5 15.2 15.2 14.0 13.3 12.2 11.2 8.2 8.0 6.9 5.6 5.2 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.9 2.7 7487 15753 8859 13521 21401 7139 3711 4422 36877 3698 10739 4935 8992 2991 3196 6464 3648 14061 1447 4754 6616 16006 2931 4782 8625 92200 4913 4738 2919 2876 1059 1294 2759 3536 2865 5604 4778 1773 787 5666 3778 378 377 1703 1348 13053 28838 15713 28497 49939 16798 9643 11333 85487 9614 30574 13690 25691 9520 10101 21621 11793 46719 5826 17369 24319 57525 13966 19225 38467 349660 21437 21653 13569 19151 7781 9518 18944 39268 26115 73397 60006 24664 13637 99590 68956 10086 13948 54676 64183 57.4 54.6 56.4 47.4 42.9 42.5 38.5 39.0 43.1 38.5 35.1 36.0 35.0 31.4 31.6 29.9 30.9 30.1 24.8 27.4 27.2 27.8 21.0 24.9 22.4 26.4 22.9 21.9 21.5 15.0 13.6 13.6 14.6 9.0 11.0 7.6 8.0 7.2 5.8 5.7 5.5 3.7 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.5 1.7 3.5 1.5 0.0 -0.2 -2.5 -1.8 2.5 0.8 -0.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 1.8 1.3 -3.2 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -3.9 0.1 -1.8 2.5 1.1 2.0 3.0 -0.2 -1.6 -0.4 1.2 -3.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 -0.6 5 a R aaa Pope Yell Perry Independence Johnson Logan Washington Crawford Franklin Randolph Sharp Lawrence Van Buren Montgomery Baxter Stone Newton Benton Izard Carroll Cleburne Scott Marion Greene Clay Polk Fulton Boone Searcy Madison 836 352 133 551 273 307 1475 460 154 155 100 84 51 11 26 7 5 50 3 4 4 2 2 5 3 2 1 2 0 0 38964 17026 7266 30147 17423 20144 100494 36892 14705 16834 14607 18447 13357 7771 27409 9022 7756 78115 10768 16203 16909 9685 11334 30744 20616 17007 9975 26067 8847 11373 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1129 371 119 595 309 273 1676 374 99 146 66 88 41 8 4 8 0 124 11 6 6 1 6 20 6 0 10 5 2 3 45883 17759 7969 31192 18221 20557 113409 42493 14897 16558 14109 17457 14008 7841 31186 9775 7666 97499 11364 18654 19411 10205 12001 31804 18107 17347 10037 28297 7841 11618 2.5 2.1 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 a state Totals 373768 2286357 16.3 373912 2350725 15.9 -0.4 a SOURCE: a DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. aa 6 I TABLE 3: THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 AND 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON PERCENTAGE BLACK, 1990) I 1980 1990 H COUNTY BLACK TOTAL %BLACK BLACK TOTAL %BLACK CHANGE FM nHH II II fl fl fl Lee Chicot Phillips Saint Francis Jefferson Crittenden Desha Monroe Lafayette Dallas Lincoln Ouachita Columbia Nevada Woodruff Bradley Union Hempstead Mississippi Drew Ashley Pulaski Cross Calhoun Clark Miller Arkansas Howard Little River Conway Jackson Cleveland Prairie Hot Spring Lonoke Faulkner Garland Poinsett Sevier Sebastian Craighead Pike White Grant Pope 8520 9414 18410 14190 36825 21207 8444 5738 4189 3957 4794 11002 9242 3398 3490 4022 13970 7062 16164 4886 7237 81407 5068 1706 5079 9136 4805 2486 3470 2974 2887 1194 1417 3014 4218 3700 5756 1868 783 4916 2876 414 1497 420 836 15539 17793 34772 30858 90718 49499 19760 14052 10213 10515 13369 30541 26644 11097 11222 13803 48573 23635 59517 17910 26538 340597 20434 6079 23326 37766 24175 13459 13952 19505 21646 7868 10140 26819 34518 46192 70531 27032 14060 95172 63239 10373 50835 13008 38964 54.8 52.9 52.9 46.0 40.6 42.8 42.7 40.8 41.0 37.6 35.9 36.0 34.7 30.6 31.1 29.1 28.8 29.9 27.2 27.3 27.3 23.9 24.8 28.1 21.8 24.2 19.9 18.5 24.9 15.2 13.3 15.2 14.0 11.2 12.2 8.0 8.2 6.9 5.6 5.2 4.5 4.0 2.9 3.2 2.1 7487 8859 15753 13521 36877 21401 7139 4422 3711 3698 4935 10739 8992 3196 2991 3648 14061 6464 16006 4754 6616 92200 4782 1447 4913 8625 4738 2919 2931 2876 2759 1059 1294 2865 3536 4778 5604 1773 787 5666 3778 378 1703 377 1129 13053 15713 28838 28497 85487 49939 16798 11333 9643 9614 13690 30574 25691 10101 9520 11793 46719 21621 57525 17369 24319 349660 19225 5826 21437 38467 21653 13569 13966 19151 18944 7781 9518 26115 39268 60006 73397 24664 13637 99590 68956 10086 54676 13948 45883 57.4 56.4 54.6 47.4 43.1 42.9 42.5 39.0 38.5 38.5 36.0 35.1 35.0 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.1 29.9 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.4 24.9 24.8 22.9 22.4 21.9 21.5 21.0 15.0 14.6 13.6 13.6 11.0 9.0 8.0 7.6 7.2 5.8 5.7 5.5 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.5 1.7 1.5 2.5 0.0 -0.2 -1.8 -2.5 0.8 0.2 -0.9 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.8 1.3 0.0 0.7 0.1 -0.1 2.5 0.1 -3.2 1.1 -1.8 2.0 3.0 -3.9 -0.2 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 -0.3 -3.2 -0.0 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.3 7 I g Saline Yell Independence Johnson Perry Washington Logan Randolph Crawford Franklin Lawrence Sharp Van Buren Benton Montgomery Fulton Izard Stone Greene Marion Clay Carroll Cleburne Madison Searcy Boone Baxter Scott Polk Newton 1458 352 551 273 133 1475 307 155 460 154 84 100 51 50 11 1 3 7 5 2 3 4 4 0 0 2 26 2 2 5 53156 17026 30147 17423 7266 100494 20144 16834 36892 14705 18447 14607 13357 78115 7771 9975 10768 9022 30744 11334 20616 16203 16909 11373 8847 26067 27409 9685 17007 7756 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1348 371 595 309 119 1676 273 146 374 99 88 66 41 124 8 10 11 8 20 6 6 6 6 3 2 5 4 1 0 0 64183 17759 31192 18221 7969 113409 20557 16558 42493 14897 17457 14109 14008 97499 7841 10037 11364 9775 31804 12001 18107 18654 19411 11618 7841 28297 31186 10205 17347 7666 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 II state Totals 373768 2286357 16.3 373912 2350725 15.9 -0.4 II SOURCE: M DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. fl fl fl 8 a TABLE 4: THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 AND 1990 (COUNTIES SORTED ON CHANGE IN PERCENTAGE BLACK, 1980-1990) 1980 1990 COUNTY BLACK TOTAL %BLACK BLACK TOTAL %BLACK CHANGE li H HH n II nnn Chicot Howard Jefferson Lee Pulaski Arkansas Bradley Phillips Saint Francis Union Jackson Clark Nevada Craighead Dallas Mississippi Sebastian Woodruff Pope Columbia Poinsett Sevier Lincoln White Johnson Drew Fulton Independence Cross Izard Benton Lawrence Greene Marion Madison Searcy Yell Clay Hempstead Crittenden Washington Boone Carroll Cleburne Stone 9414 2486 36825 8520 81407 4805 4022 18410 14190 13970 2887 5079 3398 2876 3957 16164 4916 3490 836 9242 1868 783 4794 1497 273 4886 1 551 5068 3 50 84 5 2 0 0 352 3 7062 21207 1475 2 4 4 7 17793 13459 90718 15539 340597 24175 13803 34772 30858 48573 21646 23326 11097 63239 10515 59517 95172 11222 38964 26644 27032 14 060 13369 50835 17423 17910 9975 30147 20434 10768 78115 18447 30744 11334 11373 8847 17026 20616 23635 49499 100494 26067 16203 16909 9022 52.9 18.5 40.6 54.8 23.9 19.9 29.1 52.9 46.0 28.8 13.3 21.8 30.6 4.5 37.6 27.2 5.2 31.1 2.1 34.7 6.9 5.6 35.9 2.9 1.6 27.3 0.0 1.8 24.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 29.9 42.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8859 2919 36877 7487 92200 4738 3648 15753 13521 14061 2759 4913 3196 3778 3698 16006 5666 2991 1129 8992 1773 787 4935 1703 309 4754 10 595 4782 11 124 88 20 6 3 2 371 6 6464 21401 1676 5 6 6 8 15713 13569 85487 13053 349660 21653 11793 28838 28497 46719 18944 21437 10101 68956 9614 57525 99590 9520 45883 25691 24664 13637 13690 54676 18221 17369 10037 31192 19225 11364 97499 17457 31804 12001 11618 7841 17759 18107 21621 49939 113409 28297 18654 19411 9775 56.4 21.5 43.1 57.4 26.4 21.9 30.9 54.6 47.4 30.1 14.6 22.9 31.6 5.5 38.5 27.8 5.7 31.4 2.5 35.0 7.2 5.8 36.0 3.1 1.7 27.4 0.1 1.9 24.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 29.9 42.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 nnnH nNVH Scott Polk Randolph Montgomery Faulkner Newton Ashley Baxter Van Buren Logan Sharp Conway Desha Pike Hot Spring Perry Crawford Prairie Franklin Garland Grant Saline Ouachita Cleveland Miller Monroe Lafayette Lonoke Calhoun Little River 2 2 155 11 3700 5 7237 26 51 307 100 2974 8444 414 3014 133 460 1417 154 5756 420 1458 11002 1194 9136 5738 4189 4218 1706 3470 9685 17007 16834 7771 46192 7756 26538 27409 13357 20144 14607 19505 19760 10373 26819 7266 36892 10140 14705 70531 13008 53156 30541 7868 37766 14052 10213 34518 6079 13952 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.1 8.0 0.1 27.3 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.7 15.2 42.7 4.0 11.2 1.8 1.2 14.0 1.0 8.2 3.2 2.7 36.0 15.2 24.2 40.8 41.0 12.2 28.1 24.9 1 0 146 8 4778 0 6616 4 41 273 66 2876 7139 378 2865 119 374 1294 99 5604 377 1348 10739 1059 8625 4422 3711 3536 1447 2931 10205 17347 16558 7841 60006 7666 24319 31186 14008 20557 14109 19151 16798 10086 26115 7969 42493 9518 14897 73397 13948 64183 30574 7781 38467 11333 9643 39268 5826 13966 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.1 8.0 0.0 27.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 15.0 42.5 3.7 11.0 1.5 0.9 13.6 0.7 7.6 2.7 2.1 35.1 13.6 22.4 39.0 38.5 9.0 24.8 21.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8 -1.8 -2.5 -3.2 -3.2 -3.9 II state Totals 373768 2286357 16.3 373912 2350725 15.9 -0.4 SOURCE: DIVISION OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS AT LITTLE ROCK. 10 MAP 1: THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980 (Source: Division of Demographic Research, UALR) 7 BENTON CARROLL BOONE MARIOI WASH MAOISN BAX FULTON IZARD CRAW WNK NEWTON SEARCY STONE INDEP
RXGHEAD MISS, JOHN VAN B POPE CLEB T WACK POINSETT LOGAN CONW, lEAULK >0 SCOTT POLK HOW CROSS #crit
Xtell PERRY r I NO
FpAIR WONTG GARLND SALII HOT SPRG G| PIKE HEMP
CLARK .DALI .NEV. OU AC' Percentage Black Less than 1.0% 1.0% to 9.9% /SHFRAN "
T 10.0% to 19.9% 1 IB 20.0% to 29.9% 'E U DR : ASHI kRKANSAS
woi I 30.0% to 39.9% +0.0% to 49.9% 50.0% or more MAP 2: THE BLACK POPULATION OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1990 (Source: Division of Demographic Research, UALR) 7 Percentage Black BEMTON .CAvRRFROLL BOONE MARIOl Less than 1.0% WASH MADISN NEWTON SEARCY STQnFV" J- 7 "|CiRRAAJJGGHHEEAADD :. CRAW RANK JOHN J VAN B INDEP f MISS, / 1.0% to 9.9% \ Loswy^ SCOTT POLK fhot MONTG PIKE POPE CONW, PERRT .ND SALINI R SPRG Cl '^El livS'^HEMP j|LLEH WA IK-QAtl IB XlNi CLEB IFAULK POINSETT LONO't L THim 10.0% to 19.9X 20.0% to 29.9% |S^ 30.0% to 39.9% 'E : LII DI ASHI |de^ +0.0% to 49.9% a 50.0% or more li MAP 3: CHANGE IN THE BLACK PERCENTAGE OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES, 1980-1990 BENTON > 1 ,RROLL BOONE WASH I \ MAOISM J kx
V-? CRAW RANK JOHN SEB Sm^ LOGAN YELL SCOK POLK L RIVET? MONTG PlM-HEMP f i " ' IPlWX rand I CLAY \ ' -----------7GREENE/ ----------awr f jL________________________________ Percentage Difference Decrease of 1.0% or more NElVroN SEARCY STONE ,fe CLEB *5' PERRY GARLND l-flOTSPfK LAWR mo'ni CALH t. ?!5P ?* ipOPE
*1 tla.F> pdiNSEn^ vY-CRIT Decrease of less than 1.0% No change S Increase of less than 1.0% Increase of 1.0% or more Division of Demographic Research University of Arkansas at Little Rock
This project was supported in part by a Digitizing Hidden Special Collections and Archives project grant from The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and Council on Library and Information Resoources.